Energy Loss Reduction in Oil Refineries through Flare Gas Recovery Approaches
For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C3 and C4 content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.
Use of Linear Programming for Optimal Production in a Production Line in Saudi Food Co.
Few Saudi Arabia production companies face financial profit issues until this moment. This work presents a linear integer programming model that solves a production problem of a Saudi Food Company in Saudi Arabia. An optimal solution to the above-mentioned problem is a Linear Programming solution. In this regard, the main purpose of this project is to maximize profit. Linear Programming Technique has been used to derive the maximum profit from production of natural juice at Saudi Food Co. The operations of production of the company were formulated and optimal results are found out by using Lindo Software that employed Sensitivity Analysis and Parametric linear programming in order develop Linear Programming. In addition, the parameter values are increased, then the values of the objective function will be increased.
Considerations for Effectively Using Probability of Failure as a Means of Slope Design Appraisal for Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Rock Masses
Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.
Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison
Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in
agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient
way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records.
The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into
model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to
the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic
modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their
environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of
the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it
turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem.
An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical
methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the
parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a
new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations).
It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction
is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict
requirements about the dataset.
A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these
model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this
purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods
derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal
Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and
machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor,
Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression).
The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale
provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and
the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and
two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP),
mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the
crop prediction capacity.
The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random
Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction
error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach
(MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic
model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives.
The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses
suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest
for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is
to combine these two types of approaches.
Electromagnetic Assessment of Submarine Power Cable Degradation Using Finite Element Method and Sensitivity Analysis
Submarine power cables used for offshore wind farms
electric energy distribution and transmission are subject to numerous
threats. Some of the risks are associated with transport, installation
and operating in harsh marine environment. This paper describes the
feasibility of an electromagnetic low frequency sensing technique for
submarine power cable failure prediction. The impact of a structural
damage shape and material variability on the induced electric field is
evaluated. The analysis is performed by modeling the cable using the
finite element method, we use sensitivity analysis in order to identify
the main damage characteristics affecting electric field variation.
Lastly, we discuss the results obtained.
Sensitivity and Reliability Analysis of Masonry Infilled Frames
The seismic performance of buildings with irregular distribution of mass, stiffness and strength along the height may be significantly different from that of regular buildings with masonry infill. Masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames are very common structural forms used for multi-storey building construction. These structures are found to perform better in past earthquakes owing to additional strength, stiffness and energy dissipation in the infill walls. The seismic performance of a building depends on the variation of material, structural and geometrical properties. The sensitivity of these properties affects the seismic response of the building. The main objective of the sensitivity analysis is to found out the most sensitive parameter that affects the response of the building. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis by considering 5% and 95% probability value of random variable in the infills characteristics, trying to obtain a reasonable range of results representing a wide number of possible situations that can be met in practice by using pushover analysis. The results show that the strength-related variation values of concrete and masonry, with the exception of tensile strength of the concrete, have shown a significant effect on the structural performance and that this effect increases with the progress of damage condition for the concrete. The seismic risk assessments of the selected frames are expressed in terms of reliability index.
Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances
The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.
Effect of Soil Corrosion in Failures of Buried Gas Pipelines
In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.
The Impact of the European Single Market on the Austrian Economy under Alternative Assumptions about Global and National Policy Reactions
In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects
of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the
McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the
impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into
account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to
different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the
countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of
different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also
investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post
evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the
Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian
participation in the European Single Market entails considerable
long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects
on any macroeconomic target variable.
Material Parameter Identification of Modified AbdelKarim-Ohno Model
The key role in phenomenological modelling of cyclic
plasticity is good understanding of stress-strain behaviour of given
material. There are many models describing behaviour of materials
using numerous parameters and constants. Combination of individual
parameters in those material models significantly determines whether
observed and predicted results are in compliance. Parameter
identification techniques such as random gradient, genetic algorithm
and sensitivity analysis are used for identification of parameters using
numerical modelling and simulation. In this paper genetic algorithm
and sensitivity analysis are used to study effect of 4 parameters of
modified AbdelKarim-Ohno cyclic plasticity model. Results
predicted by Finite Element (FE) simulation are compared with
experimental data from biaxial ratcheting test with semi-elliptical
Design and Sensitivity Analysis of Photovoltaic/Thermal Solar Collector
Energy is required in almost every aspect of human activities and development of any nation in the world. Increasing fossil fuel price, energy security and climate change have important bearings on sustainable development of any nation. The renewable energy technology is considered one of the drastic approaches which taken over the world to reduce the energy problem. The preservation of vegetables by freezing is one of the most important methods of retaining quality in agricultural products over long-term storage periods. Freezing factories show high demand of energy for both heat and electricity; the hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T) systems could be used in order to meet this requirement. This paper presents PV/T system design for freezing factory. Also, the complete mathematical modeling and MATLAB SIMULINK of PV/T collector is introduced. The sensitivity analysis for the manufacturing parameters of PV/T collector is carried out to study their effect on both thermal and electrical efficiency.
Validation of SWAT Model for Prediction of Water Yield and Water Balance: Case Study of Upstream Catchment of Jebba Dam in Nigeria
Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period between 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.
Investigation of Split TCSC on Kanpur-Ballabhgarh Transmission System
This paper investigates the performance of the single TCSC and proposed split TCSC on transmission system where India’s first TCSC project is installed in Kanpur - Ballabhgarh (KB) line to ensure the fine tuning of line reactance by proposed split TCSC in place of existing KB TCSC. A three phase KB transmission system is developed in MATLAB/Simulink (SimPowerSystems) for
without any compensation,
with fixed capacitor (FC),
with FC + existing KB TCSC and
with FC + proposed split TCSC
The KB system is analyzed for a step variation of load and performance of the system is investigated with a closed loop reactance control method.
Optimization of Lakes Aeration Process
The aeration process via injectors is used to combat
the lack of oxygen in lakes due to eutrophication. A 3D numerical
simulation of the resulting flow using a simplified model is presented.
In order to generate the best dynamic in the fluid with respect to
the aeration purpose, the optimization of the injectors location is
considered. We propose to adapt to this problem the topological
sensitivity analysis method which gives the variation of a criterion
with respect to the creation of a small hole in the domain. The main
idea is to derive the topological sensitivity analysis of the physical
model with respect to the insertion of an injector in the fluid flow
domain. We propose in this work a topological optimization algorithm
based on the studied asymptotic expansion. Finally we present some
numerical results, showing the efficiency of our approach
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Water Turbidity
The present study focuses on the discussion over the
parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is
applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction
of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows
that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN.
When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of
water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water
turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than
the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to
select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons
in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.
Selecting an Advanced Creep Model or a Sophisticated Time-Integration? A New Approach by Means of Sensitivity Analysis
The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.
Identification of Roadway Wavelengths Affecting the Dynamic Responses of Bridges due to Vehicular Loading
The bridge vibration due to traffic loading has been a
subject of extensive research during the last decades. A number of
these studies are concerned with the effects of the unevenness of
roadways on the dynamic responses of highway bridges. The road
unevenness is often described as a random process that constitutes
of different wavelengths. Thus, the study focuses on examining
the effects of the random description of roadways on the dynamic
response and its variance. A new setting of variance based sensitivity
analysis is proposed and used to identify and quantify the
contributions of the roadway-s wavelengths to the variance of the
dynamic response. Furthermore, the effect of the vehicle-s speed on
the dynamic response is studied.
A Simple Epidemiological Model for Typhoid with Saturated Incidence Rate and Treatment Effect
Typhoid fever is a communicable disease, found only in man and occurs due to systemic infection mainly by Salmonella typhi organism. The disease is endemic in many developing countries and remains a substantial public health problem despite recent progress in water and sanitation coverage. Globally, it is estimated that typhoid causes over 16 million cases of illness each year, resulting in over 600,000 deaths. A mathematical model for assessing the impact of educational campaigns on controlling the transmission dynamics of typhoid in the community, has been formulated and analyzed. The reproductive number has been computed. Stability of the model steady-states has been examined. The impact of educational campaigns on controlling the transmission dynamics of typhoid has been discussed through the basic reproductive number and numerical simulations. At its best the study suggests that targeted education campaigns, which are effective at stopping transmission of typhoid more than 40% of the time, will be highly effective at controlling the disease in the community.
Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis During Calibration of an Integrated Land Use and Transport Model
In this work, propagation of uncertainty during calibration
process of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model
(ILUTM), has been investigated. It has also been examined, through a
sensitivity analysis, which input parameters affect the variation of the
outputs the most. Moreover, a probabilistic verification methodology
of calibration process, which equates the observed and calculated
production, has been proposed. The model chosen as an application is
the model of the city of Grenoble, France. For sensitivity analysis and
uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo method was employed, and a
statistical hypothesis test was used for verification. The parameters of
the induced demand function in TRANUS, were assumed as uncertain
in the present case. It was found that, if during calibration, TRANUS
converges, then with a high probability the calibration process is
verified. Moreover, a weak correlation was found between the inputs
and the outputs of the calibration process. The total effect of the
inputs on outputs was investigated, and the output variation was found
to be dictated by only a few input parameters.
Non-Sensitive Solutions in Multi-Objective Optimization of a Solar Photovoltaic/Thermal(PV/T) Air Collector
In this paper, an attempt has been made to obtain nonsensitive
solutions in the multi-objective optimization of a
photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) air collector. The selected objective
functions are overall energy efficiency and exergy efficiency.
Improved thermal, electrical and exergy models are used to calculate
the thermal and electrical parameters, overall energy efficiency,
exergy components and exergy efficiency of a typical PV/T air
collector. A computer simulation program is also developed. The
results of numerical simulation are in good agreement with the
experimental measurements noted in the previous literature. Finally,
multi-objective optimization has been carried out under given
climatic, operating and design parameters. The optimized ranges of
inlet air velocity, duct depth and the objective functions in optimal
Pareto front have been obtained. Furthermore, non-sensitive solutions
from energy or exergy point of view in the results of multi-objective
optimization have been shown.
Experimental Investigation and Sensitivity Analysis for the Effects of Fracture Parameters to the Conductance Properties of Laterite
This experiment discusses the effects of fracture
parameters such as depth, length, width, angle and the number of the
fracture to the conductance properties of laterite using the DUK-2B
digital electrical measurement system combined with the method of
simulating the fractures. The results of experiment show that the
changes of fracture parameters produce effects to the conductance
properties of laterite. There is a clear degressive period of the
conductivity of laterite during increasing the depth, length, width, or
the angle and the quantity of fracture gradually. When the depth of
fracture exceeds the half thickness of the soil body, the conductivity of
laterite shows evidently non-linear diminishing pattern and the
amplitude of decrease tends to increase. The length of fracture has
fewer effects than the depth to the conductivity. When the width of
fracture reaches some fixed values, the change of the conductivity is
less sensitive to the change of the width, and at this time, the
conductivity of laterite maintains at a stable level. When the angle of
fracture is less than 45°, the decrease of the conductivity is more
clearly as the angle increases. But when angle is more than 45°,
change of the conductivity is relatively gentle as the angle increases.
The increasing quantity of the fracture causes the other fracture
parameters having great impact on the change of conductivity. When
moisture content and temperature were unchanged, depth and angle of
fractures are the major factors affecting the conductivity of laterite
soil; quantity, length, and width are minor influencing factors. The
sensitivity of fracture parameters affect conductivity of laterite soil is:
depth >angles >quantity >length >width.
Sensitivity Analysis in Power Systems Reliability Evaluation
In this paper sensitivity analysis is performed for
reliability evaluation of power systems. When examining the
reliability of a system, it is useful to recognize how results
change as component parameters are varied. This knowledge
helps engineers to understand the impact of poor data, and
gives insight on how reliability can be improved. For these
reasons, a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Finally, a real
network was used for testing the presented method.
Efficient Tools for Managing Uncertainties in Design and Operation of Engineering Structures
Actual load, material characteristics and other
quantities often differ from the design values. This can cause worse
function, shorter life or failure of a civil engineering structure, a
machine, vehicle or another appliance. The paper shows main causes
of the uncertainties and deviations and presents a systematic
approach and efficient tools for their elimination or mitigation of
consequences. Emphasis is put on the design stage, which is most
important for reliability ensuring. Principles of robust design and
important tools are explained, including FMEA, sensitivity analysis
and probabilistic simulation methods. The lifetime prediction of
long-life objects can be improved by long-term monitoring of the
load response and damage accumulation in operation. The condition
evaluation of engineering structures, such as bridges, is often based
on visual inspection and verbal description. Here, methods based on
fuzzy logic can reduce the subjective influences.
Classification of Soil Aptness to Establish of Panicum virgatum in Mississippi using Sensitivity Analysis and GIS
During the last decade Panicum virgatum, known as
Switchgrass, has been broadly studied because of its remarkable
attributes as a substitute pasture and as a functional biofuel source.
The objective of this investigation was to establish soil suitability for
Switchgrass in the State of Mississippi. A linear weighted additive
model was developed to forecast soil suitability. Multicriteria
analysis and Sensitivity analysis were utilized to adjust and optimize
the model. The model was fit using seven years of field data
associated with soils characteristics collected from Natural Resources
Conservation System - United States Department of Agriculture
(NRCS-USDA). The best model was selected by correlating
calculated biomass yield with each model's soils-based output for
Switchgrass suitability. Coefficient of determination (r2) was the
decisive factor used to establish the 'best' soil suitability model.
Coefficients associated with the 'best' model were implemented
within a Geographic Information System (GIS) to create a map of
relative soil suitability for Switchgrass in Mississippi. A Geodatabase
associated with soil parameters was built and is available for future
Geographic Information System use.
Theoretical Investigation of Steel Plated Girder Resistance
In the paper, the results of sensitivity analysis of the influence of initial imperfections on the web stress state of a thinwalled girder are presented. The results of the study corroborate a very good and effective agreement of experiments with theory. Most input random quantities were found experimentally. The change of sensitivity coefficients in dependence on working load value is analysed. The stress was analysed by means of a geometrically and materially non-linear solution by applying the program ANSYS. This research study offers important background for theoretical studies of stability problems, post-critical effects and limit states of thin-walled steel structures.
A Reproduction of Boundary Conditions in Three-Dimensional Continuous Casting Problem
The paper discusses a 3D numerical solution of the inverse boundary problem for a continuous casting process of alloy. The main goal of the analysis presented within the paper was to estimate heat fluxes along the external surface of the ingot. The verified information on these fluxes was crucial for a good design of a mould, effective cooling system and generally the whole caster. In the study an enthalpy-porosity technique implemented in Fluent package was used for modeling the solidification process. In this method, the phase change interface was determined on the basis of the liquid fraction approach. In inverse procedure the sensitivity analysis was applied for retrieving boundary conditions. A comparison of the measured and retrieved values showed a high accuracy of the computations. Additionally, the influence of the accuracy of measurements on the estimated heat fluxes was also investigated.